{edit: replaced sd with cf in last paragraph}

{edit: added Phillips as a BD hardware MFG and fixed typo of Toshiba model # and price}

I've taken a bit of punishment and head shaking for my decision to support BluRay for high definition optical storage.  The first such "silly Damon" conversation was two "deeper in .Net" events ago at a user group dinner where I got an earful.  My decision was based on careful research and thoughtful analysis.  You could call me an audiophile, videophile, Sony fanboy or whatever else you want, but right now BluRay is outselling HD-DVD by very large margins (3:1 and trending upwards) according to any and all metrics we have available to check.  These metrics are:

• 20th Century Fox's proprietary market research (taken with a grain of salt since they are a BD supporter)
• DVDEmpire.com tracks how much of each format they sell
• Amazon.com makes sales data available through the AWS developer program (see http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd)
• Neilson VideoScan (3rd party market research firm)

BluRay is selling great compared to HD-DVD and trending upwards.  Will this continue?  My magic 8 ball says yes.  So, for the people who think I am insane, let me summarize again.  I am a home theater person 1st, audio person second, gaming person next, "fanboy" last, and I happen to be somewhat technical.  These roles are the filters through which I studied the competing format data starting in early '05.

1. Studio support:  I don't know what the BluRay Disc Association (BDA) promised to the studios (the Sony owned ones never had a choice) to get them to commit to being BD only, but it worked.   This may not be an exhaustive list but is just what comes to mind, I also don’t claim to be up on who owns who and which of these are just sub-studios, I’m tracking the # of distinct names I’ve seen on releases and in the news.  More exclusive content means more people picking BD when their favorite movies show up on BD only.
   1. Neutral Studios supporting both formats:
      1. Warner
      2. Paramount
      3. Vivid (porn)
   2. HD-DVD only studios
      1. Universal
      2. Some porn studios
   3. BluRay only Studios
      1. MGM
      2. Disney
      3. Lionsgate
      4. Sony Pictures
      5. Colubmia
      6. Tri-Star
      7. ScreenGems
      8. Fox
2. Consumer Electronics Manufacturer support.  More choice means, well, more choices.  It also means CE manufacturers competing with each other which as a Capitalist I view as a good way to get better products sooner.
   1. Neutral MFGs:
      1. None, unless you count LG’s dual format player
      2. HD-DVD only
         1. Toshiba is essentially going it alone, with rumours that Onkyo will release a player in late 2007 or 2008
      3. BluRay only
         1. Sony
         2. Panasonic
         3. Apple
         4. HP
         5. Pioneer
         6. Samsung
         7. Phillips
3. The features of the specs themselves.  This is what initially made the decision for me.  Let me hit the highlights.  The same video codecs are mandatory on both formats, despite HD-DVD fanboys trying to spread rumors that BD only supports MPEG-2. I own several stunning MPEG-4/AVC/VC-1 etc. titles on BD. Both support DTS-HD and DolbyDigital+, with uncompressed sound being optional on BD.  I have not heard of any uncompressed sound on HD-DVD.

Feature	BluRay	HD-DVD
Disc space	25GB single layer/50GB dual layer	15GB single layer/30GB dual layer
Maximum Bitrates for video	40mb/s	28mb/s
Total Video+Audio Rate	54mb/s	36.55mb/s
Interactivity	BD-J	iHD

Ignore any larger numbers you’ve seen announced from either format group.  If you want to get into a prick waving contest BD has announced up to 200GB and HD-DVD up to 51GB.  These specs require more than two layers, are targeted at data archival and certainly won’t work on your home players.

Now, if you do research on the HD audio and video codecs supported you’ll see this is a problem.  The maximum video bitrate supported by things like VC-1 for 1080p/60 ends up being 20GB of storage per hour of HD video.  That’s 40GB for a 2 hour video.  Then add the max bitrate for DolbyDigital Plus sound, which is perfect sound identical to the studio master, that’s 18mb/s which means another 8.1GB per hour of high definition sound with eight discreet channels or 7.1 if you prefer that nomenclature.  Now, if we need maximum bitrates for video and sound, we are looking at 58GB for a two hour movie.  This is before extras(interviews, audio commentery, deleted scenes, whatever), this is before we get The Fellowship of the Ring coming it at 3.5 hours.  How do they fit?  How does King Kong look and sound great on HD-DVD despite being a 3 hour movie and only having 30GB to work with.

The truth is that even if you are trying to use the maximum bitrate for video you probably won’t.  The video codecs are all using compression with a variable bitrate.  Some scenes will be easier to compress than others.  The PS3 has a neat feature that allows you to watch the audio and video bitrate on the fly.  Some scenes will look great at 8mb/s video, and some scenes will jump to much higher numbers and look no better.  Obviously not all scenes are going to compress equally well, and things like amount of film grain in the picture will greatly affect the rate of compression. 

My BD copy of The Descent averages something like 36mb/s for video and is obviously stored on a dual layer 50GB disc.  Add the DTS-HD audio and the various “extras” and disc is close to being full.  The Descent contains a lot of dark-lit scenes which is difficult to encode.  I watch movies in my home theater on a 106” projection screen so any flaws are going to show themselves quickly and more apparently than on a smaller display.  I cared about the studios having the maximum amount of space to give me the highest quality audio and sound and not script to fit it on disc, and not have to store long movies with lots of special features on two discs.  Besides the space, the higher max-video and max-total bitrates mandated by the spec obviously allows the extra space to be used “for real”.  The extra space matters for higher quality audio, video, less disc switching and more HD extra features.  To me The Descent in my home theater is the first example of video and audio that would not be possible without the storage space and higher bit rate of BluRay.

Interactive features: from what I’ve seen, HD-DVD currently has better interactive features, and from what I read from format neutral studios like Warner, iHD is far easier to program for (or at least as better tool support, which I count as the same thing) than BD-J.  HD-DVD also has a PIP thing that’s harder to do on BD; Plus one Point for HD-DVD. However, I can count on my fingers the # of times I have watched any kind of commentary or anything so this does not matter for me personally and I suspect  no t for  most other home theater people either.  The only feature I care about is the “pop up menu” that allows me to pick a new scene or change audio options or turn on/off commentaries while the movie is playing without going back to the main menu.  Both formats have this.  Bring on the good movies with high quality audio and video.

4.    Marketing strategy, position, etc.

1.    But HD-DVD is cheaper!  A little, yes, however this often matters little when selling to the early adopter crowd.  Keep in mind also that when the first few players were out the Toshiba HD-A1 was $499 and compared to the $999 Panasonic BD-P1000 that did look like a major price difference.  They forgot to mention that the HD-A1 did not support 1080p/24 or 1080p/60 output, but 1080i only.  To get 1080p you needed to buy the HD-XA2, at $999, which is what the Samsung has been selling for since a few months after launch.

2.    But the BluRay physical media will cost tons more!  Well, with the average cost per disc (using Amazon.com data) fluctuates in the plus or minus $2.50 range vs. HD-DVD, I think we can safely call this theory debunked.

3.    The PS3: Obviously putting BD on the PS3 was a huge risk but it seems to be paying off.  Skepticism ran far and wide as to what the attach rate would be for people watching movies on the PS3.  The market seems to have spoken.  Anecdotally: I would have waited until late Feb to buy a PS3 except that I was eager to watch BD in my home theater.  I own 6 BD movies, 0 BD games now and have watched many more via Netflix.  Virtua Fighter 5, MotorStorm, and Lair will be my first game purchases starting Feb 20^th.

4.    Studio support: in addition to the PS3 effect, the fact that huge movies like Spider Man and Casino Royale are coming out on BD only can’t hurt.  Fox owns the distribution rights to some huge franchises like Aliens and Star Wars, Disney is releasing some huge films like Pirates of the Caribbean and Cars in the coming months.  The only films that are arguable bigger like The Matrix and Lord of the Rings franchises are pledged for simultaneous release on both formats by Warner.

5.    Finally, is BluRay important to gaming?  The first major PS3 title, “Resistance: Fall of Man” took up 17GB on disc.  If you install the new Splinter Cell on the PC it takes 14GB.  Hint: that won’t fit on DVD.  I think Gears of War shows us the space is not necessarily needed to look better but developers are finding cool uses for the space.  The developer of “The Darkness”, an upcoming shooter says: “Yeah, well Blu-ray offers us around 25GB to play with, so we're looking to license old TV shows, adverts, and cartoons to build entire TV channels in the game. You can actually turn on the TVs in the game and watch a film, watch a TV series, anything you want really. It's a little bit gimmicky, but at the same time, it's a really cool feature. Also, we tell mission-specific information through the TVs where it's needed.”

Are both optical formats doomed by content downloads?  Maybe in the long run, but right now most home people do not have the bandwidth or the patience to download an equivalent quality movie.  A friend of mine even suggested that optical formats are doomed because CF is becoming fast and cheap and ubiquitous and we’ll be purchasing movies on CF cards in five years.  Many HD-DVD fanboys are so dedicated that cruising some forums I see lots of “If BD wins I’ll stay on regular DVD forever I’m never buying Poo-Ray Sony sucks blah blah”.  For my part, I did my best research and guesswork to pick the winner, but I am a home theater nut and HD-DVD looks so much better than standard DVD of course I’ll jump on HD-DVD if it wins.

But it doesn’t look like it’s going to.