I read Obama's "Blueprint for change" plan from his website, all 64 pages of it. I am not reading McCain's plan because at this point I highly doubt he'll be elected. Regular readers know that I don't have a horse in this race, being neither a McCain nor Obama supporter.
My first observation about Obama's plan is that he seems to have everyone covered here, at least everyone who matters to someone who's most likely about to ride a populist vote into office. Every special interest group has a message for them. He has something to say to women, minorities, the poor, immigrants, the Green movement, the Labor Unions, people without Health Insurance, people who can't survive on social security, veterans, people who can't pay their mortgages, the "middle class", people who want to go to college but can't, single parents, and farmers.
Suspiciously missing is any statement to business owners small and large, to the people in this country legally, to Doctors and Nurses, to the people who are paying their mortgage, to the people saving for their own retirement, to the people who have health insurance, the people who did pay (and are still paying) for their higher education, to the people who saved, to the people who didn't make bad decisions during the housing bubble, to the people without credit card balances. These people don't count. These people can not be appealed to give up more of their freedom and offer more tax dollars to the government for the illusion of security. These people are less likely to have usable sympathy for their less responsible fellow citizens. No doubt we can expect these people to be sacrificed for the sake of providing for everyone in the first group. But, wait, says Obama: Any family making less than $250,000 per year can expect that their taxes won't go up! Well, I've seen that said in the debates and such, but his plan has some sneaky ways around that fact.
- Currently we only pay social security taxes on income up to $97,000. Obama's plan calls for removing this cap to help meet the obligations of Social Security. So, if you make more than $97,000, you and your employer can count on a 13% tax hike on that income. Obama is pretending this tax isn't a tax?
- Employers who can't or won't provide health care for their employees will be taxed (via payroll) so that their employees can participate in his Federal plan. Some businesses may just absorb this new cost. Some may not be able to and will pass it on to their customers, or from their employees in the form of smaller raises; some will have to spend less money elsewhere and hire fewer employees. Lacking specifics on what "qualifying" businesses are, the plan seems to operate on the assumption that business owners are Fat Cats who have plenty of margin in their business to do anything we pass a law forcing them to do. What about the additional cost in time and money of all the paperwork required to meet these obligations?
- Obama plans to raise the minimum wage. Once again, he assumes that the money is just sitting there and needs to be spread around. Business owners who can't or won't sacrifice their profits to accomplish this will simply hire fewer employees, spend less money rewarding the employees they already have, and pass the cost on to their customers. We cannot simply declare the Mediocre the equivalent of the Good and walk away.
Like so many politicians, Obama is pretending he can make laws that will "spread the wealth" with no negative side effects. We need only look at the chronic 12% unemployment rate in Worker's Paradise countries like Germany to gain insight as to where these policies will lead us. Sure they have health care and 5-weeks of vacation, but the cost is a near-zero GDP growth for a decade and more than double the unemployment of our "broken" system here in America. When we simply declare that people ought to behave a certain way without regard for Reality and Rights the historical result has always been bread lines and homes that aren't warm in the winter.
If I get time, I will post a more detailed analysis of the Obama plan, possibly before Election Day.